I was laid-off from my Engineering job in January of 2025 and found the job market to be a bit tricky to navigate - there were multiple positions posted that were older than 30 days, some had vague descriptions and the ones that appeared to be a perfect fit never replied. After some research, I found that companies may not be letting employees go, but they are not hiring either.

What I found is that unemployment is at a relative low compared to early 2020 at 14.9%. On the other side, the rate of new hires is low and 2024 had the highest rate of recurrent unemployment claims in 3 years. As more people lose their jobs, it becomes harder to reenter the market, consumption declines, inflation rises and (I know this is a slippery slope logic fallacy) more companies lay off employees.

1. It's a 'No Fire - No Hire' Economy

   Even though the current unemployment rate is historically low, so is the highering rate which causes a Tight job market. A healthy (loose) job market involves employees moving to better positions and leaving behind open positions to fill.

   

2. It's a Global Market

   When I graduated college in 1991, hiring was localized - Philadelphia companies posted jobs in Philadelphia newspapers and hired Philadelphia candidates. In 2025 an Engineer has to compete with candidates on a global scale, most of which are willing to work at wages much lower than the American cost of living.

3. AI Can Do Your Job!

   Like it or not, AI can write software, analize data, find job candidates, sell products, and send an email when your pharmacy is low on a specific medication. Combined with Machine Learning (they are different), jobs as we currently understand them, will everntually be replaced.

4. Ghosting

   In the past 3 years, the number of fake job postings has risen drastically. In 2024, it is estimated that 40% of the job postings were either fake or on hold. In 2018 there were 8 hires for every 10 postings, but in 2024 it dropped to 4 hires for every ten.

5. Economy is Cooling

   There are multiple indicators that the economy is cooling, however, the one to watch is the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover). There are some indications that JOLTS may collect ghost data in some form, thereby effecting federal statistics.

6. Subtle Changes
   • Companies are more selective
   • Companies no longer offer bonuses
   • Experience has less influence over technology
   • Companies hire contractors first without commitment
   • Interviewing skills have less meaning
   • Economic uncertainty and fear causes applicants to become desperate

1. Get Your Credentials in Order
   • Resume
   • LinkdIn
   • References
2. Dont't Give Up

   Seriously! It's not over, you may have to adjust your career.

   1991: As a Chemical Engineering senior at the University of Rhode Island, I saw the war with Kuwait turn URI's 100% placement into 0% - ZERO. After graduation, I went to a Johnson-Matthey interview where the lobby was crowded, the questions were ridiculous and there was 500 candidates applying for 2 positions.

   1995: The "Dot Com" boom paid Engineers a lawyers salary to develop web sites.

   2020: The Pandemic [As a contractor I was the first to go]

   2024: AI starts replacing Engineers

3. Embrace AI
   • It's The Future
     Should AI live up to the expectation that most jobs will be replaced, only AI programmers may have jobs.
   • It's Powerful
     AI can write code, send email, and tell a company you are / are not qualified.
   • It's Free (for now)
     Start writing prompts at chat.openai.com
   • It Will Edit Your Resume
     At a minimum it spell and grammer check but it goes far beyond that - it shows inconsitencies, time gaps, formatting problems and can advise on how to move forward.
4. AI Your Resume

   Regardless how you feel about AI, it is in your best interest visit Chat.OpenAI.com, paste in your resume and ask for help. At a minimum, it will identify inconsistencies, formatting issues, and offer some advice.

5. Learn to Identify Ghosting

   My only advice here is to not apply for postings on job boards that have a vague title, are suspicious for some reason, or are over 30 days old. If you can - check how many have applied already (depends on the job board)

6. Make Contacts

   This is the best way to get a job - call your brother who has a best friend that works for a bank. Send him your resume and ask if there are any openings and if he would recommend you.

7. Don't Be Toxic

   In a tight job market, you will absolutely need references and others who will verify you are what you are. Make a commitment from this day forward, you will be a helpful employee to everyone or not.